Tschudin, member of the management Committee of the Swiss National Bank: Due to the monetary easing policy, Swiss economic growth is expected to pick up slightly next year. Overseas developments are the main risks facing the Swiss economy.Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the Postal Savings Bank: The full implementation of the personal pension system is just the right time for financial institutions to usher in development opportunities. "The full implementation of the personal pension system is just the right time." Lou Feipeng, a researcher at China Postal Savings Bank, said that in the past two years, the personal pension system has achieved remarkable results in general, with a rapid increase in the number of accounts opened and a rapid enrichment of financial products. The data shows that at the end of June 2024, the number of individual pension accounts opened exceeded 60 million. "The implementation of the personal pension system in the pioneering urban areas has enabled the residents to have a more intuitive understanding of the personal pension system. At the same time, it has accumulated rich experience for government departments and financial departments to improve the personal pension system and optimize personal pension financial services. " Yan Feipeng said. (SSE)Liu Shijin: To expand consumption, we should manage from the source, and give priority to improving basic public services and consumption of low-and middle-income groups. Liu Shijin, deputy director of the 13th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Economic Commission and former deputy director of the the State Council Development Research Center, pointed out in his speech at the main forum of the 2024 Southern Finance and Economics International Forum that the macro-economy is picking up, but it is also facing the increasing pressure of insufficient total demand, especially insufficient consumer demand, and the focus of which is insufficient service consumption. We should give priority to improving basic public services and the consumption environment of low-and middle-income groups through "source governance" to promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas. On the basis of short-term stimulus policies, combined with medium-and long-term reforms, we will solve the institutional problems that restrict the expansion of consumption and help China's economy achieve high-quality development. "At present, it is necessary to distinguish the problems caused by insufficient demand from the causes of insufficient demand." Liu Shijin pointed out that from the perspective of international comparison, the lack of consumption demand in China at this stage is a structural deviation. In Liu Shijin's view, it is necessary to identify the key points or pain points in expanding consumer demand at this stage. First, service consumption based on basic public services, including education, medical and health care, affordable housing, social security, culture, sports and entertainment, financial services, transportation and communication; Second, the middle and low-income class with migrant workers as the focus; Third, people-centered, urbanization and urban-rural integration. (21 Finance)
Schlegel, Governor of Swiss National Bank: If monetary policy needs to be further relaxed, interest rate reduction is still the main tool. The Swiss National Bank is still willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market when necessary.The RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate again at the end of the year. The research team of the Financial Market Department of Agricultural Bank of China said that the market transactions have shown obvious narrative-driven characteristics in recent years. Considering some recent changes, the RMB exchange rate is expected to stabilize and rebound again in the future. First, the pricing of Trump transactions in the international market has come to an end. Second, there has been a major shift in domestic macro policies. Since late September, financial policies such as lowering the RRR, cutting interest rates, supporting the stock market and the real estate market, and fiscal debt measures have boosted market confidence. Third, there has been a favorable change in supply and demand in the domestic foreign exchange market. The end of the year is the traditional peak season for enterprises to settle foreign exchange, and the continuous forward discount will lead to the backlog of foreign exchange settlement, which will further amplify the demand for foreign exchange settlement at the end of the year. Further considering the overall situation of the game between China and the United States, Trump's return not only means the enhancement of external shocks, but also the upgrading of internal policies. The RMB exchange rate will maintain two-way fluctuations next year, and it is no longer a steady profit for enterprises to hold US dollars and postpone foreign exchange settlement. While stabilizing domestic foreign trade and foreign investment, continuing to expand high-level opening-up and expanding domestic demand in an all-round way implies the certainty of economic stabilization and recovery, which is expected to promote the return of short-term securities investment and medium-and long-term direct investment and help the RMB stop falling and rebound.The Polish minister said that Poland hopes that more countries will participate in Baltic policing, the EU must spend at least 100 billion euros on national defense, and the conditions for sending Polish MIG -29 fighters to Ukraine have not been met.
Israeli: Community alarm sounded near Gaza.Israeli: Community alarm sounded near Gaza.Nordic United Bank: The risk of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cannot be ignored. Nordic United Bank said that the European Central Bank may cut interest rates by 25 basis points again, but there is also a significant risk of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. The differences within the Committee have intensified again, and it is not easy for Lagarde to get another consistent compromise. A possible compromise is to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and at the same time, some guidelines are given, indicating that as long as the ECB's benchmark view remains unchanged, it may cut interest rates again in January. Our benchmark expectation is still to cut interest rates by 25 basis points before the meeting in April next year, when the deposit interest rate is expected to reach 2.25%.
Strategy guide
12-14
Strategy guide 12-14